The State Bank of Pakistan is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 11.5 percent when its Monetary Policy Committee meets on 14 September 2026, according to a market survey conducted ahead of the decision.

An Arif Habib Limited poll found that 87.5 percent of analysts expect the central bank to hold rates steady, while 12.5 percent anticipate a modest 50-basis-point increase given recent inflationary pressure.

The Case for Holding Rates Steady

Several indicators support the case for stability. Pakistan’s current account deficit narrowed 38 percent year-on-year to just $328 million in July, while remittances climbed 13 percent to $3.6 billion in the same period, both signs of improving external account health.

The government also posted a primary fiscal surplus of 2.9 percent of GDP in FY26, exceeding the target set under Pakistan’s IMF programme, while large-scale manufacturing grew around 5 percent over the same period, suggesting the economy can absorb the current rate environment without additional tightening.

Why Some Analysts Expect a Hike

The minority view rests on inflation data: average CPI inflation reached 10.18 percent in the first two months of the current fiscal year, a sharp jump from just 3.56 percent a year earlier. Rising fuel prices, including today’s petrol increase to Rs375.82 per litre, and the recent electricity tariff hike are among the factors pushing consumer prices higher.

The central bank has signalled it wants to see whether this inflationary pressure becomes broad-based and persistent before making any policy rate changes, rather than reacting to a single month of higher readings.

For borrowers and businesses, a held rate means financing costs stay at current levels for at least another cycle, offering some predictability even as fuel and utility costs continue to rise elsewhere in the economy.